By Andrew Wang
Despite losing the AL MVP award to Aaron Judge, 2022 solidified Shohei Ohtani as the best player in MLB and possibly the most talented player of all time. With such a once-in-a-century talent, it’s easy for fans to want him on their own teams especially with his pending free agency at the end of 2023. However, the Cardinals might be the best fit for Ohtani in the long run. The Cardinals’ main needs are quite obvious: an ace starter with swing and miss, and a left handed power bat to complement the right handed Goldschmidt and Arenado. Ohtani with his league leading 11.9 K/9 and elite power fill both holes seamlessly. It will certainly be a long-shot for Mo and company to trade and especially to extend a superstar of his caliber, but the payoff would likely be well worth the cost (both prospect capital and money).
Will the Angels actually trade Ohtani?
Angels GM Perry Minasian has made it clear that Ohtani will not be traded this offseason. However, if the Angels struggle as they have in recent years, not trading Ohtani before the deadline would be a huge mistake. Ohtani has made it clear that his priority is winning a World Series, and if the Angels fail to make the Postseason for a 9th straight year it’s hard to believe any amount of money would convince him to remain in Anaheim. Despite depth additions such as Hunter Renfroe, Brandon Drury, and Tyler Anderson, the Angels appear poised for yet another disappointing season. Their chances of winning the AL West are slim to none with the Astros and Mariners having more complete rosters. The Rangers are also on the rise after adding significant starting pitching depth (deGrom, Eovaldi, Heaney). The Angels have improved significantly, but probably not enough to catch up with the competition.
Superstar outfielder Juan Soto waits for the next pitch in the World Series
Would the Cardinals even consider trading for Ohtani?
The Cardinals have never signed a free agent to a contract larger than $100M, aside from Holliday who previously played for the team, and are extremely unlikely to give Ohtani the $500M extension that he is projected to receive. However, they will take on large contracts and sign large extensions after a trade (such as with Goldschmidt and Arenado). The Cardinals were finalists for Juan Soto last season, and if they had landed the superstar outfielder likely would’ve given him the $400M+ extension he desired. After all, giving up significant prospect capital for 2.5 years of Soto goes counter to the Cardinals’ philosophy of player development. It has been over 11 years since the last Cardinals World Series championship, and the addition of Ohtani would surely make them one of the favorites to win in 2023.
Projected 2023 Rotation with Ohtani:
Ohtani
Mikolas
Flaherty
Wainwright
Montgomery
Projected 2023 Lineup with Ohtani:
Nootbaar (RF)
Goldschmidt (1B)
Ohtani (DH)
Arenado (3B)
Contreras (C)
O’Neill (LF)
Donovan (2B)
Carlson (CF)
Edman (2B)
Cardinals All-Star Nolan Arenado makes a dazzling play en route to his 10th consecutive Gold Glove Award
Are there concerns about the DH?
While Ohtani should be extremely appealing to any contending team, there is one reason (aside from cost) teams may avoid him: he is exclusively a DH. Many teams, even the Cardinals, use the DH position for multiple players, resting position players while still keeping their bat in the lineup. Lack of DH flexibility could be a major detriment to certain teams that are not defensively inclined. The Cardinals, however, are one of the strongest teams defensively and can afford to use the DH spot for Ohtani exclusively. 5 of the 8 current Cardinals position players have won a Gold Glove (Arenado, Goldschmidt, Donovan, Edman, and O’Neill), Carlson and Nootbaar are very solid, and Contreras will likely improve under the guidance of Cardinals coaching and potential mentorship from Molina.
Cardinals #1 prospect Jordan Walker smokes a home run in the 2022 Arizona Fall League
What would Ohtani cost?
If the Angels shop Ohtani before the Trade Deadline, there will be plenty of other suitors competing with the Cardinals. Avoiding another Marcell Ozuna type trade in which the Cardinals give up too much top end talent (such as Sandy Alcantara and Zac Gallen) while also ensuring they are not outbid is paramount. The trade would almost certainly be headlined by one of the Cardinals’ top two prospects: Jordan Walker or Masyn Winn. With the Angels seeking major league ready talent to supplement an aging Trout, Walker is likely to be their preference as he projects to be MLB ready before Winn. Between Walker and Winn, the Cardinals should prefer to deal Walker as well. Walker developed primarily as a third baseman, and is now shifting to the outfield as 6-time platinum glover Nolan Arenado will own the third base in St. Louis for the foreseeable future. With the DH spot occupied by Ohtani, Walker could struggle defensively as an unproven outfielder. Winn, however, plays premium defense at shortstop and would fit well with the Cardinals after the struggles of former All-Star Paul DeJong.
In addition to Jordan Walker, to satisfy the Angels’ desire for MLB ready talent, the Cardinals could deal from a pool of Nolan Gorman, Juan Yepez, Matthew Liberatore, Alec Burleson, Ivan Herrera, and Connor Thomas (likely 2 or 3 of the above players). Of course, for half a season of Ohtani, such a premium prospect haul is not worthwhile. The Cardinals would need to ensure an extension of Ohtani for the trade to truly pay off.
Albert Pujols poses for a photo with former MVP teammates Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout at the 2022 All Star Game
Would Ohtani sign an extension in St. Louis?
As mentioned earlier, Shohei Ohtani wants to win. A World Series title is his main focus. Ohtani is surely well aware of the long history of success and the passionate and dedicated fan base in St. Louis. Nolan Arenado has recalled road trips to St. Louis while with the Rockies as he was captivated by the “best fans in baseball.” While Arenado’s experience as a visitor may have been great, Ohtani’s lone visit to St. Louis was legendary. After all, his close friend Albert Pujols was making his long awaited return to Busch Stadium. If Willson Contreras decided he wanted to play for the Cardinals after the fan reaction to Pujols’ 695th homer, how could Ohtani not be captivated by St. Louis fans as they gave a curtain call to an opposing player after hitting a home run off their own pitcher? Even after Pujols’ departure from Anaheim, it’s clear he and Ohtani are still close. During the 2021 Home Run Derby, Pujols called Ohtani during a timeout, cheering on and supporting his former teammate. Ohtani certainly followed Pujols’ chase to 700 home runs and Pujols surely would have told him how much he loved playing in front of Cardinals fans and in St. Louis.
While the Cardinals might be outbid by big spenders such as the Dodgers, Ohtani would likely be willing to take less money in St. Louis. After all, Arenado could’ve easily opted out and received more money on the open market, but he chose to stay due to the club’s commitment to winning. With payroll yet to increase (as promised) and the free agent market growing thin, one could wonder whether the Cardinals are eying a bigger fish.
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