By Sandy McMillan
Late in the last year’s offseason, the Cardinals inked Corey Dickerson to a one year $5MM deal. His $5MM salary actually represented the highest given to a Cardinal outfielder in 2022, and made him one of the team’s 9 most expensive players. The 33 year old veteran posted an underwhelming season, slashing .267/.300/.399 and playing relatively average defense. In 281 at bats, he was worth exactly 0.0 WAR. In hindsight, Dickerson’s deal was probably ill-advised. He produced little and consumed a fairly sizable chunk of payroll.
The intentions behind the deal remain cloudy. The Cardinals, like they do now, possessed a glut of young outfielders, though they were less proven. These options included Harrison Bader, Tyler O’Neill, and Dylan Carlson, the presumed starting three. They also possessed the powerful Juan Yepez, the toolsy Lars Nootbaar, the versatile Brendan Donovan, and the defensive standout Ben DeLuzio. Other depth options were more expendable, including Conner Capel and Scott Hurst. To all of this depth, the Cardinals added Corey Dickerson. He was viewed as a left-handed bat who may work in a platoon role.
This rationale breaks down, however, when one realizes that the Cardinals already had left-handed options. Carlson, Nootbaar, Donovan, Capel, and Hurst all have the ability to hit from the left side. Sure, besides Carlson they weren’t proven, but it was fair to assume that at least one could hit better than an aging Corey Dickerson. The Cardinals decided that they weren’t interested in an outfield youth movement and signed Dickerson. By the end of the season, his role had evaporated, and it was clear that Yepez and Donovan in particular had deserved more at bats. Other right-handed hitters did too. Reallocating Dickerson’s 297 PAs may have also extended more opportunities to exciting youngsters like Alec Burleson, Lars Nootbaar, and even INF/DH Nolan Gorman.
With this lesson in mind, I believe the Cardinals are unlikely to add another outfielder via either free agency or trade. Early in the offseason, many believed again that the Cardinals needed to add a left-handed bench bat. It’s a common offseason need, and too much bench depth is never a bad thing. But these rumors eventually turned from defensive specialists like Kevin Kiermaier and Kevin Pillar to offensive star Bryan Reynolds.
The case for Reynolds is simple. He can flat out hit. Since debuting in 2019, Reynolds has posted a 127 OPS+ to go along with an .842 OPS. He’s been one of the National League’s most consistent hitters, with a career .281 average and 74 long balls in just 439 career games. His numbers over the last 4 seasons are quite similar to those of Christian Yelich, Mookie Betts, and other superstars. At any rate, they’re far better than those of Dylan Carlson, the Cardinals’ presumed centerfielder in 2023. As he enters his prime, some think he’ll continue to tap into his power while maintaining his incredible contact quality metrics. All of the above factors are good. They’re great! Reynolds’ bat makes any lineup deeper.
However, Reynolds’ impressive offensive numbers hide his status as a defensive liability. Reynolds graded out as one of MLB’s worst centerfielders last season. Among all qualified center fielders, only Joc Pederson posted a lower Outs Above Average than Reynolds’ -7. Fielding Bible concurred, again ranking him among the game’s worst defenders. Frankly, much of the value Reynolds produces at the plate is offset. A brutal year in the field lowered Reynolds’ WAR output significantly, as he registered a WAR of just 2.9. He ranked outside of MLB’s 100 most productive players according to both bWAR and fWAR. Though he stacks up with MLB’s stars offensively, he ranks near Jorge Mateo, Gavin Lux, and Drew Rasmussen in terms of total output.
Reynolds’ poor defensive metrics leave teams with two choices. They can either shift him into a corner spot or bite the bullet and let him continue to play center. The first option immediately tanks his value, as he moves from a premier defensive position to a lesser defensive position. One of his greatest assets is his ability to play up the middle. His offensive numbers, though still solid anywhere, are very impressive among center fielders. Center fielders tend to be defensive specialists. They often hit down in the order are stick around due to their proficiency in the field. Kevin Kiermaier, Kevin Pillar, Harrison Bader, and Rámon Laureano embody this idea. They’re primarily responsible for saving runs. At the plate, they’re expected to contribute average to below average numbers. Reynolds’ career OPS+ of 127 is significantly higher than any of these players, yet he’s arguably less valuable. While a move to a corner outfield spot would reduce his defensive issues, it doesn’t guarantee added value. Meanwhile, he’d now be competing with traditional slugging corner outfielders, such as Juan Soto and Bryce Harper. Players with his offensive prowess are unicorns in center, but they’re much more common in the corner spots.
The second option would result in similarly hampered value. There is always the possibility that Reynolds develops defensively, but at 28, he’s more likely to regress than progress. Perhaps 2022 was a particularly bad defensive year, but even with average defense, Reynolds will have trouble jumping into true stardom. Put another way, his glove limits his ceiling.
This discussion about player ceilings will help us circle back to the Cardinals and their roster. As previously established, the Cardinals should avoid players with lower ceilings, especially when they possess impact talent with high ceilings. Dylan Carlson, though he had a down year at the plate in 2022, still projects to be a five tool player. He may not hit as well as Reynolds, but he’s likely to play fantastic defense. In far fewer at bats, Carlson was worth just .9 WAR less than Reynolds. Additionally, at just 24, age is still on Carlson’s side. He’s already a defensive standout, as he finished in the top 15% of all players, regardless of position, according to OAA. There’s no reason to substitute the older and defensively limited Reynolds for Carlson in center.
In the corners, the Cardinals possess Tyler O’Neill and Lars Nootbaar. O’Neill, like Carlson, experienced an unfortunate 2022. He battled injuries and ineffectiveness while posting subpar offensive numbers. However, like Carlson, he’s a defensive star. O’Neill recorded strong defensive numbers and injuries likely robbed him of a third consecutive gold glove. Unlike Carlson, O’Neill has shown the potential for true stardom. In 2021, he slashed .286/.352/.560 en route to a top ten finish in NL MVP voting. His 148 OPS+ topped any season of Reynolds’ career. O’Neill has shown an incredibly high ceiling, and thus remains an intriguing piece who should continue to feature in St. Louis’ long term plans. Nootbaar broke out in 2022 in a big way. He’s got an incredible arm, plays gold glove defense, walks at an elite rate, and now possesses power. Pictured below is his Baseball Savant page from 2022. Nootbaar’s baseball savant page is full of red, suggesting that his breakout is not merely a flash in the pan. In half as many at bats as Reynolds, Nootbaar was nearly as valuable, recording a 2.2 WAR. His 126 OPS+ matched that of Reynolds, but his elite glove and above average baserunning set him apart.
Aside from the aforementioned outfielders, the Cardinals possess an embarrassment of talent. Jordan Walker, one of MLB’s blue chip prospects, is knocking on the door. Meanwhile, Alec Burleson has already arrived in St. Louis and deserves an extended look. Other youngsters like Juan Yepez and Nolan Gorman should be extended the majority of the Cardinals’ DH opportunities. Even further down, 2022 minor league home run king Moisés Goméz may deserve a shot in 2023. Adding Reynolds to the fold would only hamper the development of these players. Reynolds is a stronger and more valuable player than Dickerson, but a move for Reynolds would have similar negative effects. Additionally, his higher value would be offset by the Pirates’ high asking price. Reynolds is an exciting player, but he doesn’t offer value that the Cardinals’ internal options don’t.
Now, it’s time to discuss a slight caveat in the “Don’t acquire an outfielder” discussion. If a generational talent, such as Mike Trout or… Juan Soto, becomes available, the Cardinals should absolutely be involved. However, as top tier outfielders rarely change teams, it’s not something the Cardinals will likely need to worry about. Thus, we propose that the Cardinals enter 2023 with homegrown talent in the outfield! Let’s get ready for a youth movement in St. Louis.
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