By Andrew Wang
Los Angeles Angels ace Shohei Ohtani tosses his first career complete game shutout in Detroit (Photo via Duane Burleson, Getty Images)
First, a disclaimer: I’ll be the first to say this isn’t happening. Having asked experts and insiders about Ohtani, I’d say calling it a longshot might even be generous. More like a wish or a prayer. I’ve had friends and even Cardinals writers promise jerseys and other favors if it does happen. It’s not happening, and I know.
But that’s not to say the Cardinals aren’t making a huge mistake if they aren’t involved in the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes in the 2023 offseason. From both a baseball perspective and a long-term business perspective, Ohtani will be worth every penny of his projected $600+ million contract.
Why Ohtani makes sense from a baseball perspective
John Mozeliak and the Cardinals' front office have realized and admitted their mistake. Not going after ace-caliber starting pitchers with high strikeout rates has finally cost the Cardinals in 2023, and Mo has been transparent that the Cardinals will address that need this offseason. Sure, that’ll probably come in the form of trades. Maybe the Cards add Dylan Cease or Shane Bieber or maybe even a guy whose name we haven’t heard in trade talks yet, but that’s not enough. The Cardinals will also need to add an ace in free agency.
Unfortunately for the Cardinals, the options are extremely limited this offseason. Aside from Ohtani, there are three Major League proven options that fit Mo’s need for ace-caliber strikeout pitchers. However, I believe none are true fits for the Cardinals:
Blake Snell: Snell, contending for his second career Cy Young award in 2023 and leading the National League in ERA, has one major flaw. He doesn’t eat innings. Since his debut in 2016, Snell hasn’t thrown over 200 innings once, with his career-high being 180.2 in 2018. With the bullpen depth issues the Cardinals have had this season, Snell’s inability to pitch deep into games doesn’t fit the Cards’ needs.
Julio Urias: Urias, unlike Snell, will likely be coming off the worst full-season of his career (4.38 ERA so far). At only age 26, concerns should be low, and he should be able to bounce back. However, controversies surrounding domestic violence and off-the-field incidents will dissuade the Cardinals from splurging on Urias. From an off-the-field standpoint, for a team rooted in tradition and “the Cardinal Way,” it doesn’t appear likely they will entertain the possibility of a Urias signing.
Aaron Nola: While Nola is probably the best fit the most likely free agent starter the Cardinals would go after, there are significant warning signs pointing to an imminent decline. While on the field results haven’t always been the best measure of Nola’s merits as a pitcher with the Phillies' subpar defense (see 2019 where Nola posted a respectable 3.37 FIP but a less than ideal 4.63 ERA), his numbers in 2023 are not as misleading. His 4.49 ERA is only slightly above the expected 4.21 FIP, and his strikeout rate of 9.3 per 9 innings is the lowest it’s been since his rookie season in 2015. At age 30, it’s possible Nola is exiting his prime, and it may be better that Nola signs elsewhere as David Price did in 2015.
(Side note: there are a few pitchers from NPB that will also be intriguing options for the Cardinals, but they will also require a heavy posting fee. It’s also difficult to project how players from NPB will fare in MLB so those players carry additional risk. This is a much more nuanced topic that deserves its own article.)
Ohtani is by far the most attractive starting pitcher on the market for the Cardinals’ needs. He is able to pitch deep into games when necessary, has better strikeout stuff than anyone else on the market (career K/9 of 11.4), and at age 28 is only beginning his reign of dominance on the mound posting a 2.70 ERA, 2.89 FIP, and 156 ERA+ since his unanimous MVP campaign in 2021. If the Cardinals want the best starting pitcher on the open market this offseason, look no further than Shohei Ohtani.
Hold on… I feel like I’m still missing something…
Oh yeah, did I forget to mention that Shohei Ohtani might be the best hitter on the planet? Since that breakout campaign in 2021, Ohtani is slashing .277/.377/.585/.962 for a whopping 161 OPS+. He’s hit 121 home runs in the last 3 seasons, and he’s been better than ever this year, leading the American League in on-base, slugging, walks, home runs, and triples. Speed, plate discipline, and power? He’s got it all. Add that to a lineup that includes established All-Stars in Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, and Willson Contreras, developing sluggers in Nolan Gorman and Jordan Walker, and the ever pesky Lars Nootbaar and Brendan Donovan, and you have the best lineup in all of baseball. With a glove-first Masyn Winn showing legitimate power and offensive promise in Triple-A, adding Ohtani provides a lineup where every starter has All-Star potential.
Ohtani’s only knock comes from his defense or lack thereof. Since coming over from Japan, Ohtani has been a primary DH, only rarely playing the outfield to keep his bat in the lineup after pitching before the “Ohtani rule” was established. However, the Cardinals are one team that could afford to occupy the DH spot with Ohtani every day. Goldschmidt and Arenado have often used the DH spot as a way to rest without sacrificing offensive prowess in the lineup, but with a lineup as powerful as the Cardinals would have, it won’t hurt as much to give them entire games off. Nolan Gorman often occupied the DH spot in early 2023, but his defensive improvements to above league average have earned him the right to remain at second base every day. Jordan Walker, whose defense has been honestly dreadful in 2023, should also make a similar defensive jump to Gorman with his tremendous athletic ability in 2024 and beyond. And as a Contreras/Herrera timeshare at catcher looks more and more likely, to keep Contreras in the lineup, the Cards can always use him as an outfielder as the Cubs did in years past. Simply put, there’s no real reason the Cardinals can’t afford to make lineup adjustments to add a bat as threatening as Shohei Ohtani. Left handed power hitters like Ohtani are extremely rare, and the Cardinals have a chance to add another one to complement the ever exciting Nolan Gorman.
Why Ohtani makes sense from a business perspective
And now for the harder part. We all know how great of a talent Ohtani is. Fans of all 30 teams will dream of having the two-way sensation on their teams this offseason, and the price tag will show it. Experts have projected that Ohtani will land a contract anywhere between $500-600 million in free agency. It could even be north of $600 million.
The Cardinals don’t operate like the Mets. The DeWitts don’t spend money for the sake of it, and it shows. The largest free agent contract they’ve ever handed out was Matt Holliday’s 7-year $120 million contract, and the largest free agent contract they’ve given to a player outside the organization was Willson Contreras’s 5-year $87.5 million deal. So are we really to expect the Cards to hand out a contract that’s 5 times the value of the Holliday deal this offseason? Well, the Cards’ lack of free agent spending isn’t entirely for lack of trying. They made a run at David Price for close to $200 million, and offered Jason Heyward over $200 million. As big of failures as those contracts were, it’s within the realm of possibility that the Cards could make a competitive offer for a can’t-miss talent such as Ohtani (barring injury of course).
They can also afford to sign Ohtani without going above established payroll standards. With Adam Wainwright, Paul Dejong, Jordan Montgomery, and Jack Flaherty all coming off the books for St. Louis in 2024 and the promised payroll increase in 2023 that never came, the Cardinals will have upwards of $60-70 million to play with this offseason. Acquiring pitching via trade will certainly take part of that payroll, and other current players will get raises in arbitration, but committing $50-55 million to Ohtani annually is certainly within the realm of possibility.
There is one thing many teams, such as the Cardinals, are likely underestimating, though. And that’s the value Ohtani will bring internationally. Despite baseball fandom being largely regionalized in America, Ohtani’s stardom transcends that, and he will bring in an entirely new demographic of Cardinals fans in Japan. That value is hard to quantify, and it’s likely no player has ever had the influence that Ohtani does internationally.
As a Cardinals fan, this is blasphemous to say, but Cardinals fans are not “the best fans in baseball.” Cardinals fans are the best fans in MLB. Japanese baseball fans are the best fans in baseball. A group stage game in the 2023 World Baseball Classic between Korea and Japan drew 62 million viewers alone, more than the most watched World Series game ever and putting to shame the 11.8 million viewer average for the 2022 World Series between the Astros and Phillies. While the championship game between USA and Japan (which was played at 8 am on a Wednesday morning in Japan) didn’t draw as much viewership in Japan, 97% of TVs in Japan were still tuned in. Ratings for every Samurai Japan game in 2023 compared to that of the Super Bowl. And who was front and center? None other than Shohei Ohtani.
Shohei Ohtani celebrates a home run with the Cardinals' signature "pepper grinder" in a World Baseball Classic exhibition game
It’s hard to quantify what Ohtani means to the country of Japan, but it far transcends what we’ve seen for any baseball player in recent memory, maybe ever. Ohtani’s likeness is on billboards all over Japan, and there’s even a Japanese TV station that broadcasts Angels games but keeps the camera on Ohtani at all times. When Ohtani was named American League MVP in 2021, the Tokyo Tower was lit in colors reminiscent of the Halo at Angel Stadium. No current American athlete can compare to what Ohtani means to Japan. His influence mirrors that of Lionel Messi in Argentina or Cristiano Ronaldo in Portugal. Lars Nootbaar phrased it best: “His face is everywhere. He’s Michael Jordan times the Beatles in Japan.”
With Ohtani’s prominence in Japan also comes the prominence of the Los Angeles Angels. Any Major League Baseball merchandise found in Japan is likely to be Angels gear. Fans in Japan represent the Angels everywhere they go. If the Yankees and Dodgers are the most recognizable teams for sports fans in the US, the Angels stand with them in terms of international recognizability. Angel Stadium is plastered with sponsorships for Japanese companies, and there are probably far more Angels fans living in Japan than in Anaheim. Whichever team lands Ohtani this offseason not only lands the best baseball player in the world, but also more international influence than they could imagine.
From a business standpoint, Ohtani in St. Louis would be a dream for ownership. With the ability to garner lucrative brand deals from overseas, and sell merchandise to an entirely new demographic of fans, the Cardinals would certainly become a “big-market team.” As long as Ohtani maintains his current level of play in St. Louis, it’s hard to imagine the Cardinals wouldn’t instantly become among the most valuable franchises alongside the Yankees and Dodgers. In the long-term, if Ohtani were to win a World Series and retire in a Cardinals uniform, the Cardinals’ brand and recognizability would flourish long after his career is over.
Why Ohtani would choose St. Louis
This is the one that’s least certain. And the one that’s outside the organization’s control. Obviously, if Ohtani doesn’t want to play in St. Louis, then the Cardinals have no shot of landing him in free agency. It’s been long reported that Ohtani prefers the West Coast as it’s closer to Japan, and while that is likely true, it shouldn’t rule out the possibility he lands elsewhere. Prior to joining the Angels in 2017, Shohei’s shortlist of teams also included the Dodgers, Giants, Padres, Mariners, Rangers, and Cubs, with the Rangers and Cubs notably being midwestern teams just like the Cardinals. Other skeptics have also wondered, like Kris Bryant, “Who would want to play in St. Louis?” Those who make this argument, however, have no understanding of Ohtani and his true desire: to win a championship.
Sure, St. Louis isn’t the most exciting city in the world, but for Shohei Ohtani, someone who lives and breathes baseball and nothing else, that shouldn’t be an issue. While playing for the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters of NPB, Ohtani voluntarily lived in the team’s dormitories, where he was only ever allowed to leave with permission from his manager and coaches despite being one of the most well recognized superstars in Japan. He also stated that getting a driver's license in Japan was too much effort as he only wanted to go to and from the stadium anyway. When the Angels were in St. Louis in May, when Samurai Japan teammate Lars Nootbaar invited Ohtani to lunch, Ohtani declined as he was sleeping to recover for his upcoming start. Evidently, Ohtani’s sole commitment is to winning baseball games, and the location of the team he plays for shouldn’t play a role in where he signs.
For winning baseball, is there really a better place than St. Louis? Aside from the abysmal 2023, the Cardinals have been a model organization that’s in contention nearly every season and has a long-running tradition of championship success. Other than the Yankees, no other team has been as successful as the Cardinals at winning championships. The roster construction for 2024, assuming the Cardinals fulfill their commitment to adding pitchers in the offseason, also points to this winning trend continuing into the future.
Cardinal players have only sung praises of the organization, and many star players have cited the Cardinals’ internal culture as reason for wanting to join the club. Prior to his trade from the Rockies, Nolan Arenado discussed the Cardinals’ culture with his good friend and former teammate Matt Holliday. Arenado went as far as to text Adam Wainwright videos of his defensive drills, saying, “Show this to Mo,” hoping he would swing a trade to St. Louis. Current catcher Willson Contreras cited similar conversations with Jose Quintana before deciding to sign with the Cardinals in the 2022 offseason.
Albert Pujols catches up with former Angels teammates Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout at the 2022 All Star Game
Ohtani is certainly no stranger to members of the Cardinals organization. As mentioned earlier, he and Lars Nootbaar became close friends during the 2023 World Baseball Classic. In May, Nootbaar wrote in a piece for the Players' Tribune stating, “I wouldn’t trade playing in St. Louis for anything.” In addition to Nootbaar, Ohtani is also close to Cardinals legend and former Angels teammate Albert Pujols. After being released by the Angels in 2021, Pujols called Ohtani during the Home Run Derby to provide him with words of wisdom. The two were also seen hugging and catching up at the 2022 All Star Game. Pujols’ love for the Cardinals organization speaks for itself, and it’s no secret how much he preferred the winning culture in St. Louis compared to Anaheim. Ohtani himself had a front row seat in 2019 when Albert clubbed a homer at Busch Stadium on his first trip back, receiving a thunderous curtain call as a visiting player.
Ohtani has played coy with the media when asked where he’d be interested in signing, so this is all merely speculation. There could be some unknown reason Ohtani dislikes the Cardinals, but we’ll never know if that's the case. If all Shohei wants a winning organization, however, St. Louis should be near the top of his list as a potential suitor.
Conclusion
Whew, that was a lot of analysis. Here’s what we established: Ohtani is a great fit for the Cardinals, he’s well worth a massive contract upwards of $600 million, and St. Louis fits his needs for a team with championship potential. However, a $600 million contract is still risky. If Ohtani suffers a serious injury, that’s a lot of money wasted, and the Cards won’t be able to recover. For a front office that’s notoriously risk averse, it’s highly unlikely they will go this route. However, if the Cardinals have learned anything from their failures in 2023, it’s that their old philosophies may no longer work. If there’s any year to take a big risk on one player, this is the year. Even calling Shohei Ohtani a once in a generation player is disingenuous. We’ve never seen anybody do what he’s capable of. Not even Babe Ruth. We may never see this again.
The Cardinals need to offer Shohei Ohtani a competitive contract. He might not accept it. He might sign with a team he prefers more, and that’s fine. There will be multiple suitors in line offering similar deals, and for Ohtani, it’s never been about the money. Shohei Ohtani might not choose the Cardinals, but the Cardinals need to choose him.
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