By Matt Hempstead
Ever since the departure of 2006 World Series MVP David Eckstein, the shortstop position for the Cardinals has left much to be desired. Names such as Brendan Ryan and Ryan Theroit are two that have produced solid seasons in a Cardinals uniform, but failed to lock down the position long term. Despite a clear lack of quality talent at the shortstop position over recent years, the Cardinals have passed on two blockbuster shortstop free agent classes. Perhaps this lack of spending was caused by the now extremely regrettable signing of Paul DeJong. DeJong, who debuted in 2017, has served as the Cardinals’ primary shortstop for the last five seasons. It would be unfair to say that DeJong’s six-year 26 million dollar extension was not deserved. It’s easy to forget that he finished second behind Cody Bellinger for the 2017 NL Rookie of the Year award. In just 108, DeJong clubbed 25 home runs, 26 doubles and posted an .857 OPS. His sophomore slump resulted in an OPS decrease of over one hundred points, he still produced a respectable .746. John Mozeliak, along with most of Cardinal Nation, thought that the best was still to come for the then 24 year old and extended DeJong through the 2023 season. In the first half of 2019, DeJong solidified those feelings with an all-star campaign. However, in the second half, things began to fall apart. DeJong played in 159 games and seemed to be worn down by the workload. While he did eclipse the thirty home run mark, his OPS+ fell below 100 for the first time in his career. His strikeout rate jumped from 19.1% in the first half to 26.7% in the second half. Paul DeJong has not been below a 25% strikeout rate since, including a year in 2022 where he struck out in one of every three at bats. His line drive rate has also fallen, dropping from 32.1% in the shortened 2020 season down to 19.6% in 2021 then up to 21.8% in 2022 with significantly less at bats. Coming off the worst year in his career, Paul DeJong is set to earn up to nine million in 2023.
Enter Tommy Edman. Naturally a second baseman, Edman has taken over the shortstop position due to DeJong’s poor performance. Edman filled the shortstop position extraordinarily well for someone who has spent very little time there in his career. The gold glove caliber defense he was known for at second base translated seamlessly to the shortstop position. While his offensive production is slightly above average, it is a large improvement over Dejong and more than acceptable when paired with his defensive prowess. Unfortunately, Tommy Edman has few remaining years of club control and may be in line for a pay day. He has two years of arbitration remaining, but we would feel significantly better if he was locked up for the future rather than enduring the often divisive arbitration process. The necessity to lock up Edman becomes even more imperative when looking ahead to the next few free agent classes for shortstops. While Tim Anderson would be a great addition to the Cardinals, he will be entering his age 31 season in 2024 and struggled to stay on the field in 2022. A torn ligament in his hand derailed his season after just 79 games. This kind of injury could linger, especially as his age becomes an issue. 2025 is slightly more appealing with the potential for Jorge Polanco to hit the market. Polanco will also enter his age thirty-one season in 2025. While his defensive metrics are lacking, Polanco proved in 2021 that he has legitimate power and a knack for getting on base. Once he is on base however, Polanco runs poorly when compared to Edman, who has stolen thirty or more bags in each of the last two seasons. Edman could reach forty or fifty with limited pickoff moves and larger bases coming in 2023.
With this information, signing Edman long-term seems like a great idea. However, prospect Masyn Winn is waiting in the wings. Winn, 20, fared very well at AA Springfield in 2022. After dominating with the A+ affiliate, Winn earned a promotion and slashed .258/.349/.432 in 86 games in Springfield. Winn also participated in the Arizona Fall League and slashed .294/.407/.353 in 20 games. I almost forgot to mention that he has a missile launcher attached to his arm. Winn has been clocked throwing balls across the diamond at an astounding 102 miles per hour with pinpoint accuracy. While he is expected to arrive in 2024, if he could sit on the bench for a year and learn from Edman before he departs in free agency, Winn could be the everyday shortstop for the Cardinals by opening day in 2025. In fact, Winn could be an almost replica of Edman. His slightly above average offense is highlighted with an ability to hit plenty of doubles and get on base, but lacks true home run power. He is a rangey defender with a dependable glove and an elite sprint speed which makes him a threat on the basepaths. Sound familiar?
While the Cardinals shortstop position has a confusing and cloudy future there is one clear move that needs to happen. They need to move on from Paul DeJong. 2023 is the final guaranteed year of his deal. The Cardinals will have the chance to exercise club options for 2023 and 2024, which are worth 12.5 and 15 million, respectively. This money is better spent in just about any other place. In fact, this is the money that can be used to cover Tommy Edman’s years of arbitration. Edman’s contact bat, forty-bag speed and solid defense will be a staple of the Cardinals lineup until at least 2025. However, Masyn Winn is likely the shortstop of the future. Winn will be just 23 on opening day in 2025. Tommy Edman didn’t break the major league roster until he was 24 and will be entering his age 30 season in 2025. Winn would also be playing on a cheap pre-arbitration salary, meaning the organization could save significant funds and avoid Edman’s decline. Given more time to develop his bat, Winn could be a premier shortstop at the Major League level. However, Edman is a very solid player that is extremely difficult to let walk in free agency. The Cardinals should hold onto Edman for at least the next three seasons to allow Winn to develop. Edman can also function as an insurance option. In the event that Winn fails to develop into a reliable major leaguer, Edman will be a Cardinal for life.
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