By Sandy McMillan
CONTEXT
Up to this point, the St. Louis Cardinals have been relatively quiet throughout the 2022-2023 offseason. Though they signed Willson Contreras to a five-year $87.5 contract, they have made no other moves of note. The Cardinals are seen by most as a contending team and according to various projection systems are favored to take the NL Central for the second straight year. However, simply winning the division may not be enough, especially under the new playoff format. Though the Cardinals are not necessarily a World Series or Bust team completely in win-now mode, their core is aging. Rotation stalwart Adam Wainwright is entering his final season at age 42 while Paul Goldschmidt will turn 36 near the end of the 2023 season.
The Cardinals also need to replace significant outgoing production. Gone are Jose Quintana, Yadier Molina, Albert Pujols, and several others. The Contreras signing will certainly help with replacing offensive production, however the pitching staff remains an area of concern. Other events, including the loss of Junior Fernandez and Alex Reyes and the late season implosion of Genesis Cabrera, have left the bullpen with various holes. Moreover, other pitchers like Jordan Hicks have questionable injury histories. Compounding matters, many of the team's internal options are unproven. Dakota Hudson, likely to start the season in the bullpen, struggled for much of last season. Other options, including Kodi Whitley, Zack Thompson, and even Freddy Pacheco have very little experience at the MLB level. All of this sets the stage for some sort of free agent bullpen addition. That addition should be Andrew Chafin.
THE CASE FOR ANDREW CHAFIN
Andrew Chafin is a soft throwing lefty with an intriguing 4 pitch mix. Though he averages only 91.6 MPH on both his sinker and his 4-seamer, he still manages to fool hitters with significant break. He has pitched at the MLB level for 9 seasons now, and in just over 400 innings owns a tidy 3.23 Career ERA. He occasionally employs a changeup but it rarely factors into his pitching. Below is a graphic from Baseball Savant illustrating his pitch selection by season.
Chafin has endured few speed bumps during his successful MLB career. However, 2020 was his least effective season. He pitched only 9.2 innings and produced an ERA of 6.52. However, over the last two seasons, he has been more effective than ever, recording ERAs of 1.83 and 2.83, respectively. Crucially, Chafin has eclipsed 60 games in both years. He also recorded an above average K% and BB% in 2022.
This data essentially says that Chafin is a very effective reliever with a long track record of durability and success. Any bullpen across MLB would benefit significantly by signing him. However, due to the previously discussed flaws in the Cardinals’ projected bullpen, they would benefit more than most. His durability will be welcomed by a group which has spent significant time on the IL while his experience will give Marmol another proven option and could allow young pitchers to develop in lower leverage situations. Additionally, his ability to strike batters out and limit walks will bolster areas of need in the Cardinals’ bullpen.
THE COST OF ANDREW CHAFIN
Chafin has bounced around quite a bit over the last several years and has played on a variety of short term contracts. After his incredible 2021 season, Chafin signed a two-year $13 million deal with Detroit with an opt-out after the first year. After pitching effectively yet again, he exercised his opt-out and left $7 million on the table. Chafin bet on himself and expects to earn a greater salary this season. He remains one of the top options on the market and this offseason has been marked by spending sprees across the league. Similarly effective pitchers such as David Robertson and Drew Smyly have approached or even topped $10 million in AAV. A Chafin deal would likely be a two or three year pact and could cost the Cardinals upwards of $25 million. Perhaps the Cardinals could get creative, front-loading or back-loading a deal and including either a club option or a vesting option. Personally, I would lead towards a deal paying $9.5 million over the first two years with a third year club option to pay Chafin $7 million in 2025. Such a contract would fall in line with President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak’s previous comments about increasing payroll this offseason while also remaining relatively close to previous spending levels.
CONCLUSIONS
The Cardinals have an obvious need in their bullpen and adding Chafin goes a long way towards filling that need. Though he cannot be obtained for nothing, his salary is likely to remain manageable. His metrics, pitching profile, and age are all encouraging and lend themselves towards a multi-year deal. By the time October of 2023 rolls around, one MLB team will likely have enjoyed yet another effective season from Andrew Chafin. Whether that team is the St. Louis Cardinals is unknown, and the ball rests in Mozeliak’s court.
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