By Sandy McMillan
CONTEXT
Recently, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post Dispatch noted that the Cardinals have engaged with free agent 1B Trey Mancini. Though Paul Goldschmidt will almost certainly remain entrenched as the teams first baseman following his 2022 MVP season, Mancini represents a capable and proven depth option. At just 30 years of age, Mancini still remains a viable starter with the ability to produce both at the plate and in the field. Though the Cardinals’ infield appears set, their bench remains in flux.
Current options include SS Paul DeJong, 2B Nolan Gorman, and UTIL Brendan Donovan. DeJong’s struggles over the past few seasons are well documented, and he remains a trade candidate. Gorman and Donovan represent relatively inexperienced options. Both possess strong upside but come with their own concerns. Gorman’s loud contact (70th percentile in maximum exit velocity) came with a high strikeout rate of 32.9%. His poor defense further clouds his future in St. Louis. Meanwhile, Donovan enjoyed a productive rookie year and finished third in NL ROY voting. He recorded a strong 126 OPS+. However, his line comes with its own concerns. He struggled to make loud contact and relied on his excellent plate discipline. As pitchers adjust to his patient approach, they may become more willing to challenge him knowing that he lacks significant power. This could lead to a step backwards in 2023. Aiding Donovan’s case is his incredible defensive flexibility. He can play all four infield positions and both corner outfield positions at a high level. His impressive defense in 2022 secured the NL’s first Utility Gold Glove Award. Mancini’s offensive prowess and strong veteran track record would help bolster this talented but unproven group.
THE CASE FOR MANCINI
Trey Mancini was drafted in the 8th round of the 2013 MLB draft by the Baltimore Orioles. He reached the MLB level quickly, debuting in 2016. After appearing in just a few games that season, Mancini quickly established himself as a strong player, recording three productive seasons to begin his career. He was a bright spot for the struggling Orioles. In his first three full seasons, Mancini recorded a combined OPS+ of 114 and racked up 83 homers. This stretch was punctuated by an awesome 2019 season, where Mancini smacked 35 home runs and recorded an .899 OPS. This translated to an OPS+ of 134. After the 2019 season, however, disaster struck. Mancini revealed prior to the 2020 season that he was battling colon cancer. He would sit the year out, but returned in 2021. Appearing in 147 games, Mancini reestablished himself as a quality major leaguer. He remained an above average hitter and continued to play well in the field. At the 2022 trade deadline, the Orioles traded him to the Astros where he captured his first World Series title. He reached the open market for the first time this offseason.
THE COST FOR MANCINI
As a capable producer with strong leadership qualities, Mancini will not be signed for nothing. The Astros somewhat surprisingly declined his $10 million option for 2023. In this robust market, however, Mancini could easily approach or even eclipse that mark. A Mancini deal would likely cost teams upwards of $20 million and could stretch over two or three seasons. Personally, I believe a team could offer him $17 million over two years with an additional year wrapped up in a vesting option. If he appears in 250 total games, the option could vest, paying Mancini $8 million in 2025. That would bring the total value of his deal to about $25 million.
CONCLUSIONS
The Cardinals do have plenty of payroll flexibility and could easily afford such a contract. They have been relatively quiet thus far (excluding the Contreras signing) and reportedly are looking to bolster their bench. Mancini represents a quality option who will produce and remain healthy. Excluding his debut and the 2020 season, Mancini has appeared in at least 143 games in every season he has played. Mancini is also frequently lauded by both executives and players for his strong leadership qualities. He has triumphed over significant adversity and would be a fine addition to any clubhouse. Even if the Cardinals decide to go a different direction, I’ll be rooting for another great season for Trey Mancini.
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