By Matt Hempstead
The Milwaukee Brewers entered 2022 as favorites to win the National League Central with a roster that mostly resembled the one that carried them the 2021 division title. However, despite another stellar year from 2021 Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes, the Brewers fell short of a playoff spot, finishing one game behind the NL Champion Philadelphia Phillies.
A disappointing 2022 left the Brewers in a state of limbo. The much anticipated arrival of Brewers top prospect Jackson Chourio will have to wait until 2024 at the earliest to save a lackluster outfield. Milwaukee still boasts a playoff-hopeful roster headlined by their pitching staff. Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff are one of the strongest one-two punches in the majors. Fresh off another effective season, Burnes will look to add more awards to his collection in 2023. His cutter was particularly devastating in 2022. It boasted a -21 run value, placing it among baseball’s most dominant pitches. Burnes increased his cutter usage yet again in 2022. Pairing this pitch with his plus-plus curve and four other marginally used pitches led him to a sub-three ERA and a WHIP under one. Brandon Woodruff too hopes to continue his success in recent years as he posted a 125 ERA+ in 2022. Woodruff can comfortably mix five pitches with both a four-seam and sinker as well as three breaking pitches in a slider, changeup and curveball. An ERA just over three will be the expectation out of Woodruff for the next few seasons barring injury. Behind their duo of stars is Freddy Peralta. Despite lingering shoulder issues in the 2022 season, Peralta posted a 3.58 ERA in the seventy-eight innings he pitched and posted a very respectable eighty-six strikeouts. Peralta has below average velocity but reduces quality contact with extreme efficiency while still maintaining the ability to strike out hitters. After number three however, the Brewers rotation weakens significantly with the combination of Eric Lauer and former Cub Wade Miley slotting in at four and five. Both are standard MLB pitchers with decent repertoires that are effective enough to keep them around league average in terms of ERA+. Neither throws particularly hard but both locate the baseball well and pitch very deliberately rather than trying to overpower hitters.
This year’s Brewers will also feature a solid bullpen, headlined by Devin Williams. Williams enters 2023 as the incumbent for the closer role. After several seasons as the Brewers’ top setup man behind previous closer Josh Hader, Williams will now answer the late inning calls. Though Williams experienced some struggles down the stretch last season, fans and analysts alike are optimistic for his future. His aptly nicknamed air-bender changeup is another one of the best pitches in baseball carried by the Brewers pitching staff as it carried a -8 run value in 2022, a dip from previous highs of -14 and -13 in 2021 and 2020 respectively. Williams held opposing hitters to just a .151 batting average and .205 slugging percentage against him in 2022. Matt Bush and Peter Strzelecki will likely fill the pen’s top setup roles. However, neither seem apt to fit a setup role. Bush may turn into an innings eater as he enters his age thirty-seven season and has neither the velocity nor spin rate to dominate opposing hitters. Strzelecki is just twenty-eight and can very easily be expected to remain the setup man for the Brewers if he pitches well in 2023. While lacking the velocity, Strzelecki has plenty of spin on his pitches to come in and be a true test to hitters down the stretch in games. In relief, expect to see a lot of work being delegated to Adrian Houser and Aaron Ashby. While capable of starting, both will likely begin the year in the bullpen and cover around one hundred innings of work. High walk rates plagued Houser and Ashby, making them post the less optimal ERAs of 4.73 and 4.44 respectively.
Though Milwaukee’s pitching staff is sure to perform well in 2023, the offense is much less enticing. A diminished Christian Yelich has experienced a dramatic fall from grace since his 2018 MVP and 2019 runner up finish. Meanwhile, Rowdy Tellez’s reliance on the long ball has lowered his average significantly and has perhaps hampered his overall offensive output. Though Tellez hit thirty-five home runs in 2022, he still finished only fifteen percent better than the league average hitter according to OPS+. Willy Adames is a bright spot in the lineup and has hit effectively since coming over from the Tampa Bay Rays in 2021. Behind the plate, Victor Caratini profiles as a defensive catcher, as he struggled offensively in 2022.
In 2022, the Brewers’ strong pitching staff carried them to an 88-76 record. For as well as they performed on the mound, the main objective of baseball is to outscore the opponent. The Brewers failed to do so seventy-six times this past season. Barring a dramatic return to form for Christian Yelich or some breakout performances from Luis Urias or Keston Hiura, Milwaukee’s lackluster offense will hold them back again in 2023.
Brewers GM Matt Arnold made several additions to the club this offseason . While none of these moves were groundbreaking, they brought in reinforcements to the Brewers lineup. The most important move of the offseason was trading former Cardinal and two-time gold-glover Kolten Wong to the Seattle Mariners for Jesse Winker and Abraham Toro. Despite his struggles in Seattle, Jesse Winker is a known National League Central killer. He spent the first five years of his career in Cincinnati terrorizing the NL central. In a year where Winker saw at bats at every spot in the order, he struggled to find any sort of consistency. If Winker receives consistency in a Brewers uniform he may return to his 2021 all-star form and serve as a massive upgrade in the outfield. The other significant move of Milwaukee’s offseason was a three-team deal, involving superstar catcher Sean Murphy, with Atlanta and Oakland. Arnold was able to dish out very little and receive William Contreras from the Braves. Brother of new Cardinals catcher Willson Contreras, William had a breakout year for the Braves in 2022 and is a clear upgrade over Victor Caratini. Contreras is entering his age twenty-five season and just now starting to enter his prime.
Despite these additions, the Brewers remain a middling team entering 2023. The lack of high end offensive production hinders what this team could be with its incredible pitching staff. Most projections have them hovering around eighty-six wins which could very well be good enough for second in another weak NL Central. I think these projections are lowballing Milwaukee. We should expect to see around ninety wins out of this ball club. The consistent production throughout the lineup should be plenty to put them in the win column while the pitching carries the team.
The Cardinals and Brewers matchups should remain circled on every Cardinal fan’s calendar. The high powered offense of the Redbirds is a formidable opponent even for Milwaukee’s vaunted staff. The two matched up nineteen times during the 2022 season and the Cardinals scraped away with the season series coming in with a record of 10-9 against their divisional foe. We predict that the Cardinals will again capture the season series, winning 8 of their 13 matchups in 2023. . The Brew Crew will absolutely give the Cardinals a tough time this season, but should be an outside threat at winning the NL Central. For now, the NL Central appears to be the Cardinals’ division to lose.
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