By Sandy McMillan
The Cincinnati Reds infield meets on the mound after a disappointing pitching performance
Put kindly, the 2022 Cincinnati Reds were not competitive. They finished a woeful 62-100 last season, and only an abysmal Pirates team kept them from finishing last outright in the NL Central. A brutal 3-22 start ended Cincinnati’s season in May. As such, the Reds approached the 2022 trade deadline as sellers, and shipped off much of their remaining talent. Luis Castillo, the club’s lone all-star selection, was sent to Seattle, while Tyler Mahle was traded to Minnesota. On the offensive front, the Reds shipped Tyler Naquin to the Mets, sent Tommy Pham to the Red Sox, and then flipped Brandon Drury to the Padres. None of these names will be returning to Cincinnati in 2023, as they either have years of control remaining, agreed to extensions with their new teams, or signed elsewhere in free agency. These departures leave the 2023 Reds with few recognizable names outside of a few young pitchers and the Joey Votto.
Cincinnati made a feeble attempt at bolstering the roster this offseason. They signed Wil Myers and Luke Weaver to one-year deals, and also signed a host of lesser names to minor league pacts. The new additions are likely little more than trade-bait. If they perform well, they may be flipped at the deadline for a prospect or two. Neither of them will significantly improve the roster.
The departures of Castillo and Mahle will be especially noticeable in 2023, as the club will feature a weak pitching staff. The aforementioned players represented the final holdovers from Cincinnati’s effective 2019 and 2020 rotations. Now however, the Reds seem to be starting over again. Potential breakout candidates include the incredibly talented Hunter Greene and the intriguing Nick Lodolo. Projections systems like ZiPS see ace potential in both of these hurlers. Perhaps 2023 will see one or both of them pitch effectively. Hunter Greene, for his part, was incredibly unlucky in 2022. He recorded a remarkable strikeout rate (11.7 K/9) but allowed far too many hits (7.4 H/9). He did however improve significantly as the season wore on. Lodolo had better luck and pitched to an ERA of 3.62 in 2022. He also recorded impressive strikeout numbers (11.4 K/9). Additionally, he limited home runs and walks. Both of these pitchers should build on their exciting rookie seasons.
Behind them sits Graham Ashcraft. Ashcraft is a much less exciting name, and the projections systems bear that out. His ceiling is widely believed to be much lower, however he still has the potential to develop into a solid starter. Ashcraft’s 2022 season stats are misleading, as a rough finish derailed what was otherwise an encouraging rookie year. Ashcraft finished with a 4.89 ERA but a much more palatable 4.21 FIP. He gave out very few free passes (2.6 BB/9) and limited homers (0.9 HR/9). However, his fastballs were very hittable. Ashcraft can touch 98 when right but generates limited movement on his cutter and sinker. As such, his velocity played down in 2022 and hitters teed off against those pitches specifically. Additional movement of an increase in slider usage could result in a better sophomore campaign.
As for the back end of the rotation, it’s anyone’s guess as to who will eat innings. Second year pitcher Vladimir Gutiérrez struggled to build on a decent 2021. His 7.61 ERA in 8 starts may have removed him from the Reds’ future plans. Other internal options include lefties Levi Stoudt, acquired in the Castillo deal, Andrew Abbott, and Brandon Williamson. The most interesting name in this group is easily Williamson, as his nasty arsenal could someday play at the front end of a big-league staff. Following the departure of Castillo and Mahle in 2022, veterans Chase Anderson and Mike Minor stepped up to eat innings. Though a reunion with either of the aforementioned pitchers is unlikely, the Reds may again look to veterans for help. Additionally, new signee Luke Weaver has started in the past, though he has seen much of his recent success as a reliever.
Cincinnati’s bullpen will be a stronger group in 2023. Anchored by star closer Alexis Díaz, the pen figures to be a bright spot for the club. Díaz had a spectacular rookie season, and though replicating that success seems unlikely, he should have a strong 2023. Other high leverage arms such as Luis Cessa, Art Warren, Lucas Sims, Justin Wilson, and Ian Gibaut figure to be effective. Even after considering the above names, Cincinnati has a host of other interesting options. Those who lose out on rotation spots may also begin the year in the bullpen. Levi Stoudt is MLB ready and could be an interesting left handed option this season. If Cincinnati fails to compete, expect to see many of these names included in trade talks, as the Reds will likely boast a horde of valuable relievers.
Offensively, the Reds struggled in 2022. Their lineup lacked both average and thump. The Reds finished near the bottom of the pack in home runs, runs, exit velocity, on base percentage, average and slugging. 2021 NL Rookie of the Year Jonathan India regressed heavily, while former top prospect Nick Senzel failed to take a step forward. Other big names such as Joey Votto also experienced down years. Fan-favorite Aristedes Aquino failed to deliver at the plate and departed for Japan while Mike Moustakas struggled again in the final year of his contract. Additionally, Votto endured what was easily the worst season of his career. The lone bright spots in 2022 were Brandon Drury and Tyler Stephenson. The 2023 lineup will look fairly different. Departed is Brandon Drury, but hopefully a healthy Stephenson and bounce-back campaigns from Votto and India (who experienced awful luck in 2022) will help to offset the lost production. The addition of Wil Myers is interesting, as he is a career 111 OPS+ hitter and had a solid year at the plate in 2022 (108 OPS+, .713 OPS), however he is unlikely to significantly improve the offense. Jake Fraley and Nick Solak project to be slightly above average hitters according to ZiPS, although those projections feel generous. Of the two, Fraley had the far more encouraging 2022 season, and a breakout 2023 is a distinct possibility. However, the Reds lack significant impact talent on the offensive portion of the big league roster. They are also unlikely to add outside offensive help.
Thus, if the Reds’ offense takes a step forward in 2023, it will likely be due to the arrival of top prospects such as Elly De La Cruz. De La Cruz is one of baseball’s most exciting young talents. He projects as a true five-tool player and is loaded with power. His advanced approach and strong contact skills give him the ability to hit in the middle of a lineup. The 6’6” SS/3B resembles baseball’s most powerful hitters and could immediately impact the club if called upon. His power could be even more effective in the hitter-friendly confines of Great American Ball Park. Another name to watch is Noelvi Marte, the key piece in the Castillo trade. Though most of his tools grade out as average or slightly above average, he exhibits extreme raw power. A more refined approach could help him tap into that power more consistently. Though most believe he will debut in 2024, it is possible that a strong showing could push the Reds to call him up this season. Outside of these top talents, fans should keep an eye on utility infielder Spencer Steer and outfielder Michael Siani. If this new wave of young talent performs as well as Cincinnati's front office hopes they will, the Reds’ rebuild could be entering its final stages. By 2025, much of their top talent should be in the majors and ready to play.
Though the future may be bright in Cincinnati, the present is still fairly dull. The Reds will likely lose a lot of games in 2022. This is, after all, still a rebuilding club. The Noot News team expects Cincinnati to finish 65-97, good for fourth in a weaker NL Central. The Reds’ record in September should not be what most fans use to measure its success. Instead, fans should focus on the individual developments of young pitchers and hitters. Even if the Reds finish well out of contention, a season in which Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Alexis Díaz, Tyler Stephenson, Elly De La Cruz, and Jonathan India perform effectively should be viewed as a success.
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