By Sandy McMillan
2022 was a rebuilding year for the Chicago Cubs. After a successful run through much of the last decade, their window of contention finally slammed shut in the middle of 2021. The 2020 departure of franchise stalwart Kyle Schwarber may have foreshadowed the end, but it was the offloading of Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, and fan-favorite Anthony Rizzo that formally closed the book on Chicago’s 2016 championship team. The ensuing fire sale also saw the Cubs ship out Joc Pederson, Jake Marisnick, Trevor Williams, Andrew Chafin, Ryan Tepera, and Craig Kimbrel. The only remaining holdovers from the 2016 squad to suit up for the Cubs in 2022 were Kyle Hendricks, Jason Heyward, and the recently departed Willson Contreras. Only Hendricks will return for the coming season. For even the most nostalgic fan on the North Side, it is now clear that an era has come to an end.
With any end comes a new beginning. Chicago’s front office was very active this offseason, adding big names on short term deals in an attempt to compete sooner rather than later. Though Chicago possesses a decent farm system, much of their talent is rather young. In spite of such circumstances, ownership and team executives alike have expressed a desire to compete now instead of waiting years for reinforcements to percolate through the system. This rationale likely fueled their spending spree this past winter. The Cubs signed Cody Bellinger, Brad Boxberger, Jameson Taillon, Tucker Barnhart, Drew Smiley, Trey Mancini, Eric Hosmer, and Dansby Swanson to major league deals. In the infield, only Nico Hoerner and Patrick Wisdom are likely to repeat their starting roles, while only Ian Happ is a lock to return in the outfield. This Cubs team will look as fresh as any team in baseball in 2023.
Offensively, it’s difficult to tell if the reinforcements will make much of a difference. Cody Bellinger, signed to a rather expensive one-year deal, has struggled immensely since his 2019 MVP campaign, and in 2022 he was 22% below average at the plate . His .654 OPS represented an improvement upon a truly dreadful 2021, but it was not enough to convince the Dodgers to re-sign the former star. Can a change of scenery infuse Bellinger’s bat with life again? Only time will tell, but the projections systems are not optimistic. ZiPS gives Bellinger another season with a sub .700 OPS, but believes his glove will be valuable enough to keep him in the lineup. The Cubs also signed Mancini, Barnhart, and Hosmer to short term deals. Hosmer struggled in 2022 before being dealt to Boston, who released him. Hosmer’s season line seems appealing, as he was actually 8% above average at the plate, but his glove is an issue and his batting line was propped up by a ridiculously strong start. In April, Hosmer posted a .389 batting average, which fell in each subsequent month, ultimately dropping to .268. In that time, his OPS also fell from 1.054 to just .716. Other teams likely saw the drop in production as an omen for what’s to come, explaining the lack of interest surrounding Hosmer for the first half of the offseason. Mancini put together a more impressive season and was traded to Houston at the deadline. Though he’d capture his first World Series title, his production cratered after the trade. In 51 games with Houston, Mancini slashed .176/.258/.364, good for an OPS+ of just 75, compared to the 113 OPS+ he recorded in 92 games with Baltimore. The last offensive addition is catcher Tucker Barnhart. Put civilly, he will not replace the production lost in the departure of Willson Contreras. Barnhart has never been an offensive threat, however his brutal 2022 season reached new lows. In 308 plate appearances, he hit .221 with 74 strikeouts. He recorded just one home run and finished with an OPS+ of 64, easily the lowest in a full season in his career. Meanwhile, his defense also began to slip. All told, Barnhart was worth just 0.1 WAR last season. The outgoing Contreras had one of his strongest seasons to date and seems likely to continue posting strong numbers. Barnhart is, admittedly, not a long term solution. Any gains the Cubs may have made in other signings are likely to be diminished or even lost at the catcher position.
Though most of the Cubs’ moves this offseason felt like band-aid solutions and involved veterans on short-term contracts, they did walk away from the offseason with one of the four available shortstops. The Cubs forked over $177MM and signed Dansby Swanson to a 7 year deal. Swanson had a career year in 2022, recorded a career-high 115 OPS+. This represents just one of two above average offensive seasons in Swanson’s career. The other was 2020, in which Swanson only appeared in 60 games. Until his breakout 2022, the former top overall pick was widely seen as a light-hitting, glove-first option. Even factoring in his strong 2022 season, his career OPS+ remains under 100. Whether he can maintain his increased effectiveness remains to be seen.
Aside from their horde of incoming names, Chicago has a few interesting holdovers from the 2022 roster. Nico Hoerner had what was easily the best season of his young career. In his first full season in Chicago, he continued an upwards offensive career trajectory, setting career highs in OPS+ and slugging, while finally settling into an everyday role. Hoerner also played exceptional defense, finishing in the 98th percentile in Baseball Savant’s OAA while splitting time between second base and shortstop. With the even more defensively valuable Swanson penciled in at shortstop, Hoerner seems to have the keystone position locked up for the foreseeable future. He appeared in 135 games and is likely to surpass that total in 2023. Hoerner’s productive season ultimately resulted in an impressive 4.5 WAR. As he will not reach free agency until the conclusion of the 2026 season, Hoerner may be around for Chicago’s next true contender.
In the outfield, the Cubs will feature a trio of solid options, including 2022 breakout star Christopher Morel, longtime Cub Ian Happ, and recent overseas acquisition Seiya Suzuki. Morel exploded onto the scene in 2022 and caught fire early in the season. However, as the season wore on, he slowed down significantly and finished the year with an OPS+ of 107 and a WAR of 1.4. He is defensively limited and seems unlikely to play CF again with the recent Bellinger addition. Perhaps in a corner outfield spot he will be a more valuable player, but he still has the look of an MLB regular. Happ is the Cubs’ strongest returning offensive player. He’s hit well for the entirety of his career, but 2022 was his best season yet. He set career highs almost across the board and had another strong defensive year, finishing as a 4.4 WAR player. He’s likely to hit in the heart of the Cubs’ restructured lineup. In his first year stateside, Suzuki delivered a strong offensive showing but left something to be desired defensively. Like Morel, he’s defensively limited but strong enough offensively to stick as a regular. It’s also important to note that the Cubs owe Suzuki $77MM over the next four seasons. Thus, he is likely to remain in a prominent role.
On the pitching front, the Cubs have fewer known quantities. Veteran Kyle Hendricks will return for his 10th season on the North Side. The usually reliable starter experienced a dip in production over the past two seasons. His incredible run from 2014-2020 culminated in a dominant pandemic season. However, since the shortened season, he’s been below average posting a forgettable 4.77 ERA in 2021 and a similarly disappointing 4.80 ERA in 2022. A return to form is not out of the question, but as Hendricks is now 33, it’s fair to wonder if his best days are behind him. The longtime Chicago ace could reach free agency this November if Chicago decides not to exercise his $16MM club option for 2024. Behind Hendricks, the Cubs will expect strong showings from Marcus Stroman and recent signee Jameson Taillon. Stroman joined Chicago on a three-year pact before the 2021 season and has pitched effectively thus far. A strong season could persuade him to elect free agency instead of picking up the $21MM player option for 2024. Former Pirate Jameson Taillon had a solid 2022 with the Yankees which he parlayed into a four-year $68MM deal with the Cubs. He grades out as a roughly average pitcher and is a fine back of the rotation arm. There is also lefthander Drew Smyly to consider. He too experienced success in 2022 and was rewarded with a multi-year deal, albeit one laden with options. Smyly offers a different look than the aforementioned righties. He should lock down a rotation spot but his age and recent injury history make him less of a sure option.
The Cubs pitching staff is also likely to lean heavily on the team's pool of farm talent. Youngsters Justine Steele, Adrian Sampson, Hayden Wesneski, and Javier Assad will compete for the final rotation spots. Steele has the longest track record at the MLB level while Wesneski put up the most impressive numbers. Any of the four could develop into productive starters, demonstrating the depth in Chicago. Other names like Adbert Alzolay and Matt Swarmer are worth knowing, though both remain buried on the depth chart. Chicago may not fully invest in their youth in 2023, but with veterans headed out after this season, the Cubs are likely to give their young guns plenty of chances to prove themselves. The other symptom of expiring contracts is deadline activity; the Cubs have shown a pension for selling off marketable pieces in non-contending years. Stroman, Hendricks, Smyly, and others could be on the move this summer.
In the pen, the Cubs are less than stacked. Rowan Wick, Brad Boxberger, and Brandon Hughes lead an uninspiring group. ZiPS doesn’t see any of these relievers as elite, though the possibility remains that several may emerge. The Cubs thinned their relief corps significantly this offseason when they shipped out closer David Robertson and setup man Scott Effross. The remaining arms will jockey for position this spring, and roles will likely go into April unclaimed. It’s likely that Chicago goes with a closer by committee approach for at least the first month or two of the 2023 season. Of their other arms, Jeremiah Estrada probably has the highest ceiling, though Ben Leeper, Ethan Roberts, Kervin Castro, and Walker Powell are worth keeping an eye on. Though this unit is not likely to be a strength for Chicago in 2023, it isn’t necessarily consigned to disaster. There are plenty of names worth dreaming on, and the bullpen possesses a modest ceiling.
The Cubs have several interesting prospects, but among their top names, only outfielder Brennan Davis is likely to debut this year. His stock has fallen significantly in recent seasons as his development has been marred by injuries and ineffectiveness. Outfielder Alexander Canario also seems ready to contribute, as he reached AAA in 2022 but has a far less interesting profile. The wait for Pete Crow-Armstrong and Kevin Alcantara is likely to drag into 2024 as neither has played at the AA level.
The Cubs as currently constructed are a polarizing team. They spent like a contender but lack the high end talent and depth necessary for true contention. Chicago’s winter signings totaled about $316MM, $65MM of which will be tacked onto the 2023 payroll. With these additions, The Cubs are currently slated to be the NL Central’s most expensive team, as the Cardinals and Brewers have significantly limited spending in recent years. Chicago also lacks the farm system of a team emerging from a rebuild. Though they have some high end talent, their system is top heavy. Thus, they seem to be in a state of limbo. Their competitors possess deep systems loaded with talent at every level. These strong systems are likely to fuel Milwaukee and St. Louis for years to come.
However, even despite the difference in spending, Chicago is not likely to contend for the division title. ZiPS projected the Cubs to finish 74-88 at the beginning of the offseason. Meanwhile, the Cardinals and Brewers were projected to finish at 91-71 and 85-77, respectively. Though the Cubs have augmented the roster since that projection, they have not added enough talent to close a 17 game gap. Moreover, the Cardinals and Brewers possess significantly stronger farm systems with more MLB ready talent.
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